China has overtaken the United States
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| The atmosphere at the Beijing Capital International Airport, China. |
The latest data showed China's trade volume in December last year was U.S. $ 389.8 billion, a record monthly . Reported by Forbes , Monday, January 13, 2014 , Chinese exports accounted spectacular revenue , which reached U.S. $ 207.7 billion .
" It is very likely , China has overtaken the United States to become the country with the world's largest merchandise trade in 2013 for the first time , " said Zheng Yuesheng , a spokesman for the General Administration of Customs of China .
Last year , the Bamboo Curtain country 's trade performance was indeed impressive . For the first time , China's trade nearly U.S. $ 4 trillion .
Throughout 2013 , China's exports reached U.S. $ 2.21 trillion . China's imports also rose to U.S. $ 1.95 trillion . The increase of 7.6 per cent in total trade of China is nearing the trade growth target of 8 percent this year .
" Last year was an important milestone for the development of our foreign trade , " Zheng added .
Some believe the trade data released by Beijing , although some time ago there was a rumor fictitious export transaction data in the past year .
An analyst said that , if the actual export data are reported , although the number is reduced , the Chinese remain more superior than the United States .
China's Ministry of Commerce in 2013 released the monthly trade figures , China's trade more than U.S. $ 250 billion in the United States .
So , how bad the Chinese trade statistics ? Economists , when discussing the reliability of the data last year , always suspect in January-April exports to Hong Kong , which although part of the People's Republic of China , but legally separated for customs purposes .
Data reported China Customs said exports to Hong Kong's contribution of 57.2 percent . These conditions give rise to suspicion of fraudulent transactions to cover capital inflows into China .
In the four months , the data was mentioned , the flow of hot money into China from investors increased . The funds were rotated in order to get cash in a rising yuan and higher interest rates .
This will contribute to the distortion of trade data that triggered the action of transfer of funds by speculators , because of the regulatory loopholes that can be exploited .
At the same time , according to the data , exporters alleged fraud value-added tax ( VAT ) by showing fake documents exports to Hong Kong . However , no one has ever mentioned false export to Hong Kong for four months less than U.S. $ 250 billion .
Global Financial Integrity, the company's research and advocacy non-profit , comparing statistical data of China and Hong Kong and found that China's exports to Hong Kong in the first quarter of last year , as the data reported by Beijing , was U.S. $ 54.6 billion . This data is greater than the import data of Hong Kong to China , as reported by Hong Kong in the same period .
Although Chinese authorities crack down on fake invoices report it , but the difference data in the second quarter of last year was also great .
Apparently, the research firm said , in the first half of last year , a total of U.S. $ 93 billion illegally enter China through fake invoices involving export to Hong Kong .
Fictitious exports to Hong Kong in the first half of last year is not yet over. Fraudulent transactions appeared back in early July .
Reuters proclaimed the unexpected exports in September alleged flow of hot money of U.S. $ 16 billion , and in October found the illegal transfer of U.S. $ 24 billion .
Although the data export growth in December was disappointing , with only 4.3 percent , but the data it needs to be re-examined , given that exports jumped very high when compared to December 2012 .
The problem extends
China's export of fake resurrection after the crackdown in May showed the problem was widespread . Supervision of the value of the Chinese currency is not strictly conform to those determined to move money into the country .
Chinese statistics are distorted by false export documents also cause China continues to take money from them . China Customs official launch data . Zheng even specifically defended the statistical data of China's exports to Hong Kong .
That means Beijing trade figures in 2013, it should be suspected ketidaktelitiannya . Public is now awaiting data gross domestic product ( GDP ) which is due to be officially launched China National Bureau of Statistics of China on January 20, 2014 .
Because China Customs refused to restate the valid Chinese trade figures . The only way to understand China's trade position is to cross-check with the countries trading partner of China .
Variants would have been much greater , not only with Hong Kong . Previously , China reported exports to South Korea increased by 5.7 percent in 2012 . In fact , South Korea launched the data that imports from China during the year declined 6.8 percent .
A note here is , many South Korean trade with China does not pass through the southern port of Hong Kong .
Zheng in the end it may be true that the Chinese dominate world trade . However , currently , there is no enough information to verify what she claims to be .
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